Human influence on global warming. Consequences of global warming. Hypotheses, comments, forecasts of scientists. Indicating a warming climate

Much has been said and written about global warming. New hypotheses appear almost every day, old ones are refuted. We are constantly frightened by what awaits us in the future (I remember well the comment of one of the readers of the magazine www.priroda.su "We have been scared for so long and terribly that it is no longer scary"). Many statements and articles openly contradict each other, misleading us. Global warming has already become a "global confusion" for many, and some have completely lost all interest in the problem of climate change. Let's try to systematize the available information by creating a kind of mini encyclopedia of global warming.

1. What is Global Warming?

5. Man and the greenhouse effect

1. Global warming is a process of gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean, due to various reasons (an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere, changes in solar or volcanic activity, etc.). Very often the phrase "greenhouse effect" is used as a synonym for global warming, but there is a slight difference between these concepts. The greenhouse effect is an increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean due to an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, etc.) in the Earth's atmosphere. These gases play the role of a film or glass in a greenhouse (greenhouse), they freely pass the sun's rays to the surface of the Earth and retain heat that leaves the planet's atmosphere. We will consider this process in more detail below.

For the first time, global warming and the greenhouse effect were spoken about in the 60s of the XX century, and at the UN level the problem of global climate change was first raised in 1980. Since then, many scientists have been puzzling over this problem, often mutually refuting each other's theories and assumptions.

2. Ways to obtain information on climate change

Existing technologies make it possible to reliably judge the ongoing climatic changes. Scientists use the following "tools" to substantiate their theories of climate change:

Historical annals and chronicles;

Meteorological observations;

Satellite measurements of the area of ​​ice, vegetation, climatic zones and atmospheric processes;

Analysis of paleontological (remains of ancient animals and plants) and archaeological data;

Analysis of sedimentary oceanic rocks and river sediments;

Analysis of ancient ice in the Arctic and Antarctica (ratio of isotopes O16 and O18);

Measurement of the rate of melting of glaciers and permafrost, the intensity of icebergs formation;

Observation of the sea currents of the Earth;

Observation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and ocean;

Monitoring changes in the habitats (habitats) of living organisms;

Analysis of tree rings and the chemical composition of tissues of plant organisms.

3. Facts about global warming

Paleontological evidence suggests that the Earth's climate was not constant. Warm periods were followed by cold glacial periods. In warm periods, the average annual temperature of the Arctic latitudes rose to 7-13 ° C, and the temperature of the coldest month of January was 4-6 degrees, i.e. climatic conditions in our Arctic differed little from the climate of modern Crimea. Warm periods sooner or later were replaced by cold snaps, during which ice reached modern tropical latitudes.

Man has also witnessed a number of climatic changes. At the beginning of the second millennium (11-13 centuries), historical chronicles indicate that a large area of ​​Greenland was not covered with ice (which is why Norwegian sailors dubbed it "green land"). Then the Earth's climate became harsher, and Greenland was almost completely covered with ice. In the 15-17 centuries, severe winters reached their climax. The severity of winters of that time is evidenced by many historical chronicles, as well as works of art. For example, the famous painting by the Dutch artist Jan Van Goyen "Skaters" (1641) depicts mass ice skating on the canals of Amsterdam, now the canals of Holland have not been frozen for a long time. Even the River Thames in England froze in medieval winters. A slight warming was noted in the 18th century, which peaked in 1770. The 19th century was again marked by another cold snap, which lasted until 1900, and from the beginning of the 20th century, a rather rapid warming had already begun. By 1940, the amount of ice in the Greenland Sea had halved, in the Barents Sea by almost a third, and in the Soviet sector of the Arctic, the total ice area had decreased by almost half (1 million km2). During this period of time, even ordinary ships (not icebreakers) calmly sailed along the northern sea route from the western to the eastern outskirts of the country. It was then that a significant increase in the temperature of the Arctic seas was recorded, and a significant retreat of glaciers in the Alps and the Caucasus was noted. The total ice area of ​​the Caucasus has decreased by 10%, and the ice thickness in places has decreased by as much as 100 meters. The temperature rise in Greenland was 5 ° C, and in Svalbard all 9 ° C.

In 1940, the warming was replaced by a short-term cooling, which was soon replaced by another warming, and in 1979 a rapid rise in the temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere began, which caused another acceleration in the melting of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic and an increase in winter temperatures in temperate latitudes. So, over the past 50 years, the thickness of the Arctic ice has decreased by 40%, and residents of a number of Siberian cities began to note for themselves that severe frosts have long been in the past. The average winter temperature in Siberia has increased by almost ten degrees over the past fifty years. In some regions of Russia, the frost-free period increased by two to three weeks. The habitat of many living organisms has shifted to the north following the growing average winter temperatures, we will talk about these and other consequences of global warming below. Old photographs of glaciers (all photos were taken in the same month) are especially clear about global climate changes.

Photos of the melting Pasterze glacier in Austria in 1875 (left) and 2004 (right). Photographer Gary Braasch

Photos of the Agassiz Glacier in Glacier National Park (Canada) in 1913 and 2005. Photographer W.C. Alden

Photos of Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park (Canada) in 1938 and 2005. Photographer: Mt. Gould.

The same Grinnell glacier from a different angle, photographs from 1940 and 2004. Photographer: K. Holzer.

In general, over the past hundred years, the average temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere has increased by 0.3-0.8 ° C, the area of ​​snow cover in the northern hemisphere has decreased by 8%, and the level of the World Ocean has risen by an average of 10-20 centimeters. These facts give rise to some concern. Whether global warming will stop or the further increase in the average annual temperature on Earth will continue, the answer to this question will appear only when the reasons for the ongoing climatic changes are precisely established.

4. Causes of global warming

Hypothesis 1- The cause of global warming is a change in solar activity

All the ongoing climatic processes on the planet depend on the activity of our luminary - the Sun. Therefore, even the smallest changes in the activity of the Sun will certainly affect the weather and climate of the Earth. There are 11-year, 22-year, and 80-90-year (Gleisberg) cycles of solar activity.

It is likely that the observed global warming is associated with another increase in solar activity, which in the future may decline again.

Hypothesis 2 - The cause of global warming is a change in the angle of the Earth's axis of rotation and its orbit

The Yugoslav astronomer Milankovic suggested that cyclical climate changes are largely associated with a change in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, as well as a change in the angle of inclination of the Earth's axis of rotation in relation to the Sun. Such orbital changes in the position and motion of the planet cause a change in the radiation balance of the Earth, and hence its climate. Milankovitch, guided by his theory, quite accurately calculated the times and length of ice ages in the past of our planet. Climatic changes caused by changes in the Earth's orbit usually occur over tens or even hundreds of thousands of years. The relatively rapid climate change observed at the present moment of time, apparently, occurs as a result of the action of some other factors.

Hypothesis 3 - Ocean is the culprit of global climate change

The oceans are a huge inertial solar energy accumulator. It largely determines the direction and speed of movement of warm oceanic and air masses on Earth, which greatly affect the climate of the planet. At present, the nature of heat circulation in the ocean water column has been little studied. It is known that the average temperature of ocean waters is 3.5 ° C, and the land surface is 15 ° C, so the intensity of heat exchange between the ocean and the surface layer of the atmosphere can lead to significant climatic changes. In addition, a large amount of CO2 (about 140 trillion tons, which is 60 times more than in the atmosphere) and a number of other greenhouse gases are dissolved in the ocean waters, as a result of certain natural processes these gases can enter the atmosphere, significantly affecting climate of the Earth.

Hypothesis 4 - Volcanic activity

Volcanic activity is a source of sulfuric acid aerosols and a large amount of carbon dioxide entering the Earth's atmosphere, which can also significantly affect the Earth's climate. Large eruptions are initially accompanied by a cooling due to the entry of sulfuric acid aerosols and soot particles into the Earth's atmosphere. Subsequently, the CO2 released during the eruption causes an increase in the average annual temperature on Earth. The subsequent long-term decrease in volcanic activity contributes to an increase in the transparency of the atmosphere, and hence an increase in temperature on the planet.

Hypothesis 5 - Unknown interactions between the Sun and the planets of the solar system

It is not for nothing that the word “system” is mentioned in the phrase “Solar system”, and in any system, as you know, there are connections between its components. Therefore, it is possible that the relative position of the planets and the Sun can affect the distribution and strength of gravitational fields, solar energy, and other types of energy. All connections and interactions between the Sun, planets and the Earth have not yet been studied and it is possible that they have a significant impact on the processes occurring in the atmosphere and hydrosphere of the Earth.

Hypothesis 6 - Climate change can occur on its own without any external influences and human activities

Planet Earth is such a large and complex system with a huge number of structural elements that its global climatic characteristics can significantly change without any changes in solar activity and the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Various mathematical models show that over a century, fluctuations in the temperature of the surface air layer (fluctuations) can reach 0.4 ° C. As a comparison, the body temperature of a healthy person can be cited, which varies during the day and even an hour.

Hypothesis 7 - Man is to blame

The most popular hypothesis to date. The high rate of climatic changes taking place in recent decades can indeed be explained by the ever-increasing intensification of anthropogenic activity, which has a noticeable effect on the chemical composition of the atmosphere of our planet towards an increase in the content of greenhouse gases in it. Indeed, the increase in the average air temperature of the lower layers of the Earth's atmosphere by 0.8 ° C over the past 100 years is too high a rate for natural processes; earlier in the history of the Earth, such changes took place over the course of millennia. The last decades have added even more weight to this argument, since changes in the average air temperature occurred at an even greater pace - 0.3-0.4 ° C over the past 15 years!

It is likely that the current global warming is the result of many factors. You can familiarize yourself with the rest of the hypotheses of the ongoing global warming here.

5 man and the greenhouse effect

The adherents of the latter hypothesis assign a key role in global warming to man, who radically changes the composition of the atmosphere, contributing to the growth of the greenhouse effect of the Earth's atmosphere.

The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere of our planet is caused by the fact that the flow of energy in the infrared range of the spectrum, rising from the Earth's surface, is absorbed by the molecules of gases in the atmosphere, and is radiated back in different directions, as a result, half of the energy absorbed by the molecules of greenhouse gases returns back to the surface of the Earth, causing it warming up. It should be noted that the greenhouse effect is a natural atmospheric phenomenon. If there were no greenhouse effect on Earth at all, then the average temperature on our planet would be about -21 ° С, and so, thanks to greenhouse gases, it is + 14 ° С. Therefore, purely theoretically, human activities associated with the release of greenhouse gases into the Earth's atmosphere should lead to further warming up of the planet.

Let's take a closer look at the greenhouse gases that can potentially cause global warming. The number one greenhouse gas is water vapor, and its contribution to the existing atmospheric greenhouse effect is 20.6 ° C. CO2 is in second place, its contribution is about 7.2 ° С. The increase in the content of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is now of greatest concern, since the growing active use of hydrocarbons by mankind will continue in the near future. Over the past two and a half centuries (since the beginning of the industrial era), the CO2 content in the atmosphere has already increased by about 30%.

Ozone is in third place in our greenhouse rating, contributing 2.4 ° C to global warming. Unlike other greenhouse gases, human activities, on the contrary, cause a decrease in the ozone content in the Earth's atmosphere. This is followed by nitrous oxide, its contribution to the greenhouse effect is estimated at 1.4 ° C. The content of nitrous oxide in the planet's atmosphere tends to grow; over the past two and a half centuries, the concentration of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere has increased by 17%. A large amount of nitrous oxide enters the Earth's atmosphere as a result of the incineration of various wastes. The list of major greenhouse gases is completed by methane, its contribution to the total greenhouse effect is 0.8 ° C. The content of methane in the atmosphere is growing very rapidly; over two and a half centuries, this growth was 150%. The main sources of methane in the Earth's atmosphere are decaying waste, cattle, and the decay of natural compounds containing methane. Of particular concern is the fact that methane's ability to absorb infrared radiation per unit mass is 21 times higher than that of carbon dioxide.

The greatest role in the current global warming is assigned to water vapor and carbon dioxide. They account for more than 95% of the total greenhouse effect. It is thanks to these two gaseous substances that the Earth's atmosphere heats up by 33 ° C. Anthropogenic activity has the greatest impact on the growth of carbon dioxide concentration in the Earth's atmosphere, and the content of water vapor in the atmosphere grows following the temperature on the planet, due to an increase in evaporation. The total technogenic emission of CO2 into the Earth's atmosphere is 1.8 billion tons / year, the total amount of carbon dioxide that binds the Earth's vegetation as a result of photosynthesis is 43 billion tons / year, but almost all of this amount of carbon as a result of plant respiration, fires, decomposition processes again finds itself in the planet's atmosphere and only 45 million tons / year of carbon is deposited in plant tissues, land swamps and the depths of the ocean. These numbers indicate that human activities can potentially be a tangible force affecting the Earth's climate.

6. Factors accelerating and slowing down global warming

The planet Earth is such a complex system that there are many factors that directly or indirectly affect the planet's climate, accelerating or slowing down global warming.

Factors accelerating global warming:

Emissions of CO2, methane, nitrous oxide as a result of man-made human activities;

Decomposition, due to an increase in temperature, of geochemical sources of carbonates with the release of CO2. The earth's crust contains 50,000 times more carbon dioxide in a bound state than the atmosphere;

An increase in the content of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere, due to an increase in temperature, and hence the evaporation of ocean water;

The release of CO2 by the World Ocean due to its heating (the solubility of gases decreases with increasing water temperature). As the temperature of the water rises, the solubility of CO2 in it decreases by 3% for each degree. The oceans contain 60 times more CO2 than the Earth's atmosphere (140 trillion tons);

Decrease in the albedo of the Earth (the reflectivity of the planet's surface), due to the melting of glaciers, changes in climatic zones and vegetation. The sea surface reflects much less sun rays than the polar glaciers and snow of the planet, mountains without glaciers, and also have a lower albedo, tree vegetation moving northward has a lower albedo than tundra plants. Over the past five years, the Earth's albedo has already decreased by 2.5%;

Emission of methane during the melting of permafrost;

Decomposition of methane hydrates - crystalline ice compounds of water and methane contained in the subpolar regions of the Earth.

Factors slowing down global warming:

Global warming causes a slowdown in the speed of ocean currents, a slowdown of the warm Gulf Stream will cause a decrease in temperature in the Arctic;

With an increase in temperature on Earth, evaporation increases, and hence cloudiness, which is a certain kind of obstacle to the sun's rays. The cloud area grows by about 0.4% for every degree of warming;

As evaporation increases, the amount of precipitation increases, which contributes to waterlogging, and swamps are known to be one of the main CO2 depots;

An increase in temperature will contribute to the expansion of the area of ​​warm seas, and hence the expansion of the range of mollusks and coral reefs, these organisms are actively involved in the deposition of CO2, which is used to build shells;

An increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stimulates the growth and development of plants, which are active acceptors (consumers) of this greenhouse gas.

7. Possible scenarios of global climate change

Global climatic changes are very complex, so modern science cannot give an unambiguous answer what awaits us in the near future. There are many scenarios for the development of the situation.

Scenario 1 - global warming will occur gradually

The earth is a very large and complex system, consisting of a large number of interconnected structural components. The planet has a mobile atmosphere, the movement of air masses of which distributes thermal energy over the latitudes of the planet, the Earth has a huge accumulator of heat and gases - the World Ocean (the ocean accumulates 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere) Changes in such a complex system cannot occur quickly. Centuries and millennia will pass before any tangible climate change can be judged.

Scenario 2 - global warming will occur relatively quickly

The most "popular" scenario at the present time. According to various estimates, over the past hundred years, the average temperature on our planet has increased by 0.5-1 ° C, the concentration of CO2 has increased by 20-24%, and methane by 100%. In the future, these processes will continue and by the end of the XXI century, the average temperature of the Earth's surface may increase from 1.1 to 6.4 ° C, compared to 1990 (according to IPCC forecasts, from 1.4 to 5.8 ° C). Further melting of the Arctic and Antarctic ice may accelerate global warming due to a change in the planet's albedo. According to some scientists, only the planet's ice caps, due to the reflection of solar radiation, cool our Earth by 2 ° C, and the ice covering the ocean surface significantly slows down the heat transfer processes between relatively warm ocean waters and the colder surface layer of the atmosphere. In addition, above the ice caps, there is practically no main greenhouse gas - water vapor, since it is frozen out.

Global warming will be accompanied by a rise in sea levels. From 1995 to 2005, the level of the World Ocean has already risen by 4 cm, instead of the projected 2 cm. will cause partial flooding of many coastal areas, especially the populous coast of Asia. It should be remembered that about 100 million people on Earth live at an altitude of less than 88 centimeters above sea level.

In addition to the rise in the level of the World Ocean, global warming affects the strength of the winds and the distribution of precipitation on the planet. As a result, the frequency and scale of various natural disasters (storms, hurricanes, droughts, floods) will increase on the planet.

Currently, 2% of all land is affected by drought; according to forecasts by some scientists, by 2050, drought will cover up to 10% of all land on the continents. In addition, the distribution of precipitation by seasons will change.

In Northern Europe and the western United States, the amount of precipitation and the frequency of storms will increase, hurricanes will rage 2 times more often than in the 20th century. The climate of Central Europe will become changeable; in the heart of Europe, winters will become warmer and summers rainy. Eastern and southern Europe, including the Mediterranean, is facing drought and heat.

Scenario 3 - Global warming in some parts of the Earth will be replaced by a short-term cooling

It is known that one of the factors in the occurrence of ocean currents is the temperature gradient (difference) between the Arctic and tropical waters. The melting of polar ice contributes to an increase in the temperature of Arctic waters, which means that it causes a decrease in the temperature difference between tropical and Arctic waters, which will inevitably lead to a slowdown in currents in the future.

One of the most famous warm currents is the Gulf Stream, thanks to which the average annual temperature in many northern European countries is 10 degrees higher than in other similar climatic zones of the Earth. It is clear that stopping this oceanic heat conveyor will greatly affect the Earth's climate. Already, the Gulf Stream has become weaker by 30% compared to 1957. Mathematical modeling has shown that in order to completely stop the Gulf Stream, it will be enough to increase the temperature by 2-2.5 degrees. At present, the temperature of the North Atlantic has already warmed up by 0.2 degrees compared to the 70s. If the Gulf Stream stops, the average annual temperature in Europe will drop by 1 degree by 2010, and after 2010, the average annual temperature will continue to rise. Other mathematical models promise a stronger cooling for Europe.

According to these mathematical calculations, a complete stop of the Gulf Stream will occur in 20 years, as a result of which the climate of Northern Europe, Ireland, Iceland and the UK may become colder than the present by 4-6 degrees, rains will intensify and storms will become more frequent. The cold snap will also affect the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and the north of the European part of Russia. After 2020-2030, warming in Europe will resume according to scenario # 2.

Scenario 4 - Global warming will give way to global cooling

The stop of the Gulf Stream and other oceanic ones will cause a global cooling on Earth and the onset of the next ice age.

Scenario 5 - Greenhouse Disaster

A greenhouse catastrophe is the most "unpleasant" scenario for the development of global warming processes. The author of the theory is our scientist Karnaukhov, its essence is as follows. An increase in the average annual temperature on Earth, due to an increase in the content of anthropogenic CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere, will cause the CO2 dissolved in the ocean to enter the atmosphere, as well as provoke the decomposition of sedimentary carbonate rocks with additional release of carbon dioxide, which, in turn, will raise the temperature on Earth even higher. which will entail further decomposition of carbonates lying in deeper layers of the earth's crust (the ocean contains 60 times more carbon dioxide than the atmosphere, and the earth's crust contains almost 50,000 times more). Glaciers will melt intensively, reducing the Earth's albedo. Such a rapid rise in temperature will contribute to the intense influx of methane from the melting permafrost, and an increase in temperature to 1.4-5.8 ° C by the end of the century will contribute to the decomposition of methane hydrates (icy compounds of water and methane), concentrated mainly in the cold places of the Earth. Considering that methane is 21 times more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, the temperature rise on Earth would be catastrophic. To better imagine what will happen to the Earth, it is best to pay attention to our neighbor in the solar system - the planet Venus. With the same parameters of the atmosphere as on Earth, the temperature on Venus should be higher than Earth's by only 60 ° C (Venus is closer than Earth to the Sun), i.e. be around 75 ° C, in reality the temperature on Venus is almost 500 ° C. Most of the carbonate and methane-containing compounds on Venus were destroyed long ago with the release of carbon dioxide and methane. At present, the atmosphere of Venus is 98% CO2, which leads to an increase in the planet's temperature by almost 400 ° C

If global warming follows the same scenario as on Venus, then the temperature of the surface layers of the atmosphere on Earth can reach 150 degrees. An increase in the Earth's temperature even by 50 ° C will put an end to human civilization, and an increase in temperature by 150 ° C will cause the death of almost all living organisms on the planet.

According to Karnaukhov's optimistic scenario, if the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere remains at the same level, then the temperature on Earth will be 50 ° C in 300 years, and 150 ° C in 6000 years. Unfortunately, progress cannot be stopped; CO2 emissions are only growing every year. According to a realistic scenario, according to which CO2 emissions will grow at the same rate, doubling every 50 years, the temperature of 502 on Earth will already be established in 100 years, and 150 ° C in 300 years.

8. Consequences of global warming

The increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere will be felt more strongly over the continents than over the oceans, which in the future will cause a radical restructuring of the natural zones of the continents. The displacement of a number of zones to the Arctic and Antarctic latitudes is already being noted.

The permafrost zone has already shifted to the north by hundreds of kilometers. Some scientists argue that due to the rapid thawing of permafrost and the rise in the level of the World Ocean, in recent years the Arctic Ocean has been advancing on land at an average speed of 3-6 meters over the summer, and on the Arctic islands and capes, highly ice-rich rocks are destroyed and absorbed by the sea during the warm season. at a speed of up to 20-30 meters. Entire Arctic islands disappear completely; so already in the 21st century the Muostakh Island near the mouth of the Lena River will disappear.

With a further increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere, the tundra can almost completely disappear in the European part of Russia and remain only on the Arctic coast of Siberia.

The taiga zone will shift to the north by 500-600 kilometers and decrease in area by almost a third, the area of ​​deciduous forests will increase 3-5 times, and if moisture allows, the belt of deciduous forests will stretch in a continuous strip from the Baltic to the Pacific Ocean.

Forest-steppe and steppes will also move to the north and cover the Smolensk, Kaluga, Tula, Ryazan regions, coming close to the southern borders of the Moscow and Vladimir regions.

Global warming will also affect animal habitats. The change of habitats of living organisms is already noted in many parts of the world. The gray-headed thrush has already begun to nest in Greenland, starlings and swallows have appeared in subarctic Iceland, and the egret has appeared in Britain. The warming of the Arctic ocean waters is especially noticeable. Now many commercial fish are found where they were not previously available. In the waters of Greenland, cod and herring appeared in quantities sufficient for their commercial fishing, in the waters of Great Britain - the inhabitants of the southern latitudes: red trout, large-headed turtle, in the Far Eastern Gulf of Peter the Great - Pacific sardine, and mackerel and saury appeared in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk. The range of brown bears in North America has already moved north to such an extent that hybrids of polar and brown bears have begun to appear, and in the southern part of their range, brown bears have completely stopped hibernating.

An increase in temperature creates favorable conditions for the development of diseases, which is facilitated not only by high temperature and humidity, but also by the expansion of the habitat of a number of animals that carry diseases. By the middle of the 21st century, the incidence of malaria is expected to rise by 60%. The increased development of microflora and the lack of clean drinking water will contribute to the growth of infectious intestinal diseases. The proliferation of microorganisms in the air can increase the incidence of asthma, allergies and various respiratory diseases.

Due to global climatic changes, the next half century may be the last in the life of many species of living organisms. Already, polar bears, walruses and seals are losing an important component of their habitat - Arctic ice.

Global warming for our country entails both pluses and minuses. Winters will become less severe, lands with a climate suitable for agriculture will move further north (in the European part of Russia to the White and Kara Seas, in Siberia to the Arctic Circle), in many parts of the country it will be possible to grow more southern crops and early ripening of the old ones. It is expected that by 2060 the average temperature in Russia will reach 0 degrees Celsius, now it is still -5.3 ° C.

Unpredictable consequences will entail the melting of permafrost, as you know, permafrost covers 2/3 of the area of ​​Russia and 1/4 of the area of ​​the entire Northern Hemisphere. There are many cities on the permafrost of the Russian Federation, thousands of kilometers of pipelines, as well as roads and railways have been laid (80% of the BAM passes through the permafrost). Melting permafrost can be accompanied by significant destruction. Large areas may become unsuitable for human life. Some scientists express concern that Siberia may be cut off from the European part of Russia and become the object of claims of other countries.

Other countries of the world are also waiting for dramatic changes. In general, according to most models, precipitation is expected to increase in winter in high latitudes (above 50 ° north and south latitude), as well as in temperate latitudes. In southern latitudes, on the contrary, a decrease in the amount of precipitation is expected (up to 20%), especially in summer. Tourism-producing countries in Southern Europe are facing large economic losses. Summer dry heat and winter heavy rains will reduce the "ardor" of those wishing to relax in Italy, Greece, Spain and France. For many other countries, living off tourists, too, far from the best times will come. Fans of skiing in the Alps will be disappointed, with snow in the mountains there will be "stress". In many countries around the world, living conditions deteriorate significantly. According to UN estimates, by the middle of the 21st century, there will be up to 200 million climate refugees in the world.

9. Ways to prevent global warming

There is an opinion that people in the future will try to take control of the Earth's climate, how successful this will be, time will tell. If mankind does not succeed, and he does not change his lifestyle, then the species Homo sapiens will face the fate of dinosaurs.

Already now, leading minds are pondering how to level the processes of global warming. Such original methods of preventing global warming are proposed, such as the development of new varieties of plants and tree species, the leaves of which have a higher albedo, painting roofs white, installing mirrors in low-earth orbit, sheltering glaciers from the sun's rays, etc. A lot of effort is spent on replacing traditional types of energy based on the combustion of carbon raw materials with non-traditional ones, such as the production of solar panels, wind turbines, the construction of TPP (tidal power plants), hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants. Original non-traditional methods of generating energy are proposed, such as the use of the heat of human bodies to heat rooms, the use of sunlight to prevent the appearance of ice on the roads, as well as a number of others. Energy hunger and fear of threatening global warming works wonders for the human brain. New and original ideas are born almost every day.

Much attention is paid to the rational use of energy resources.

To reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, the efficiency of engines is improved, hybrid cars are produced.

In the future, it is planned to pay great attention to capturing greenhouse gases in the production of electricity, as well as directly from the atmosphere by burying plant organisms, using ingenious artificial trees, pumping carbon dioxide to many kilometers of ocean depth, where it will dissolve in the water column. Most of these ways to “neutralize” CO2 are very expensive. Currently, the cost of capturing one ton of CO2 is approximately $ 100-300, which exceeds the market value of a ton of oil, and if we take into account that the combustion of one ton produces approximately three tons of CO2, then many ways of capturing carbon dioxide are not yet relevant. Previously proposed ways of storing carbon by planting trees are considered untenable due to the fact that most of the carbon as a result of forest fires and decomposition of organic matter goes back into the atmosphere.

Particular attention is paid to the development of legislative standards aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, many countries of the world have adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1999). The latter has not been ratified by a number of countries that account for the lion's share of CO2 emissions. Thus, the United States accounts for about 40% of all emissions (recently it was reported that China has overtaken the United States in terms of CO2 emissions). Unfortunately, as long as a person puts his own well-being at the forefront, progress in solving global warming issues is not expected.

About global warming and related serious economic, social and environmental problems ... In recent years, a great many news and information have been published on this subject. But the latest news, perhaps, turned out to be the "coolest" of all. A group of scientists from the USA, France and Great Britain stated that we have already passed the point of no return and the catastrophic consequences of global warming on Earth cannot be stopped.

Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the atmosphere of the Earth and the World Ocean (definition by Wikipedia). There are several reasons for global warming and they are associated with cyclical fluctuations in solar activity (solar cycles) and human economic activity. It is impossible to determine today with absolute certainty which of them is dominant. Most scientists are inclined to the point of view that the main reason for this is human activity (combustion of hydrocarbon fuels). Some scientists strongly disagree and believe that the total human influence is small, and the main reason is high solar activity. Moreover, they even argue that a new Little Ice Age will begin soon after the current warming.

Personally, in this situation, it is difficult for me to accept any one point of view, since none of them today has sufficiently complete scientific evidence. And yet, the problem is serious, you need to react to it somehow and you cannot stay on the sidelines... In my opinion, even if the supporters of the anthropogenic (human) factor, as the main cause of global warming, turn out to be wrong in the future, then the efforts and funds spent today to prevent this warming will not be in vain. They will more than pay off with new technologies and attentive attitude on the part of people to nature conservation.

What is the essence of global warming? The bottom line is the so-called "greenhouse" effect. In the Earth's atmosphere, there is a certain balance of heat input (sun rays) from the Sun and its return to space. The composition of the atmosphere has a great influence on this balance. More precisely, the amount of so-called greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide and methane, although water vapor is also a greenhouse gas). These gases have the ability to trap the sun's rays (heat) in the atmosphere, preventing them from going back into space. Previously, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 0.02%. However, as the industry grew and the production and combustion of coal, oil and natural gas increased, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere was constantly increasing. Because of this, more heat is absorbed, which gradually heats up the planet's atmosphere. Forest and steppe fires also contribute to this. This is what concerns human activity. I will leave the mechanism of cosmic influence for the next material.

What are the consequences of global warming? Like any phenomenon, global warming has both negative and positive consequences. It is believed that it will become warmer in the northern countries, so it will be easier in winter, agricultural yields will increase, and southern crops (plants) will be cultivated to the north. However, scientists are confident that the negative consequences of global warming will be much greater and the losses from them will significantly exceed the benefits. That is, in general, humanity will suffer from global warming.

What kind of disasters can be expected from global warming?

1. An increase in the number and strength of destructive typhoons and hurricanes;
2. Increase in the number and duration of droughts, exacerbation of the problem of water scarcity;
3. From the melting of the Arctic and Antarctic glaciers, the rise in the level of the World Ocean and the flooding of coastal areas where many people live;
4. The death of taiga forests due to the melting of permafrost and the destruction of cities built on this permafrost;
5. The spread to the north and highlands of a number of species - pests of agriculture and forestry and disease vectors.
6. Changes in the Arctic and Antarctic can lead to a change in the circulation of ocean currents, and hence the entire hydro and atmosphere of the Earth.

This is in general terms. In any case, global warming is a problem that will affect all people, regardless of where they live and what they do. That is why it is today the most widely discussed in the world, not only among scientists, but also by the public.

There are many discussions and different points of view on this matter. Personally, I was most impressed by the film by Al Gore (the former US presidential candidate in the campaign in which he ran with George W. Bush) "An Inconvenient Truth." It lucidly and reasonably reveals the causes of global warming and shows its negative consequences for people. The main conclusion drawn in the film is that the momentary political interests of narrow ruling groups of people must give way to the long-term interests of the entire human civilization.

In any case, a lot needs to be done in order to, if not stop, then at least mitigate the negative consequences of global warming. And the publication below - once again think about it.

(Continuation )

Georgy Kazulko
Bialowieza Forest

(Write your feedback, thoughts, ideas, questions, comments or disagreements in the comments below (anonymous users sometimes need to send a comment in a separate window) enter code english text from the picture) or send it to my email address: [email protected])

Catastrophic climate change cannot be stopped

The best scientists in the world believe that in the near future, humanity will face the expansion of deserts, declining harvests, increasing force of hurricanes, and the disappearance of mountain glaciers, which provide hundreds of millions of people with water.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has already reached the point after which catastrophic climate changes will begin, even if the amount of carbon dioxide will be reduced in the coming decades.

This is stated by a group of renowned scientists from the United States, France and the United Kingdom in an article published in the Open Atmospheric Science Journal.

This study contradicts previous estimates, according to which a dangerous concentration of carbon dioxide will be reached in this century, only later, reports RIA Novosti.

“There is a bright side to this conclusion - if we take steps to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations, we can reduce the problems that already seem inevitable,” said lead author James Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Exploration at Columbia University.

According to the scientist, humanity will be faced with expanding deserts, declining yields, increasing hurricanes, shrinking coral reefs and the disappearance of mountain glaciers, which provide water for hundreds of millions of people.

To prevent a sharp warming in the coming years, the researchers write, the concentration of carbon dioxide must be reduced to the level that existed before the industrial era - up to 350 parts per million (0.035%). The current concentration of carbon dioxide is 385 ppm and is increasing by 2 ppm (0.0002%) per year, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

The authors of the article note that the latest data on the history of climate change on Earth support their conclusions. In particular, observations of the melting of glaciers, which previously reflected solar radiation, and the release of carbon dioxide from melting permafrost and the ocean show that these processes, which were previously thought to be rather slow, can occur over decades, rather than thousands. years.

Scientists note that reducing emissions from coal combustion can significantly improve the situation.

At the same time, they are skeptical about geoengineering methods of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, in particular, to proposals to bury carbon dioxide in tectonic cracks or pump it into rocks on the ocean floor. In their opinion, the withdrawal of 50 millionths of gas using this technology will cost at least $ 20 trillion, which is twice the US national debt.

“Humanity today is faced with the inconvenient fact that industrial civilization is becoming the main factor influencing the climate. The biggest danger in this situation is ignorance and denial, which can make tragic consequences inevitable, ”the researchers write.

The problem of violation of the climatic balance has become acute recently. During the first 10 years of the XXI century, the volume of emissions of harmful gases increased by 4 times. For this reason, there is now a persistent rise in ambient temperature.

This article is for people over 18 years of age.

Have you already turned 18?

Global Warming: Myth or Reality?

More and more attention is paid to the issue of global warming. New theories and facts appear every day, old ones are refuted or confirmed. The publications contradict each other, which often leads to misconceptions. Let's try to deal with this issue.

Global warming is understood as the process of increasing the temperature of the environment (averaged over the year), ocean waters, the surface of the planet, caused by a change in the activity of the Sun, an increase in the emission of harmful gases in the atmosphere and other factors that arise as a by-product of human activity. Let's see what the temperature change threatens us with.

Consequences of global warming

TO the consequences of global warming include:

• climatic changes, which are manifested by abnormal temperatures. Here are some examples of this process: severe frosts in winter alternate with a fairly high temperature during the warming period, abnormally hot or cold summer;
• a decrease in the supply of water suitable for consumption;
• a decrease in the yield of many crops;
• melting of glaciers, which raises the water level in the oceans and leads to the appearance of icebergs;
• an increase in the number of natural disasters: prolonged droughts, torrential torrential rains in certain regions, which were not typical for this; destructive hurricanes and tornadoes;
• desertification and the increase in areas unsuitable for life;
• reduction in biological species diversity due to the inability to adapt to new habitat conditions.

Whether it is dangerous for humanity or not, it is impossible to say unequivocally. Question in how quickly he will be able to adapt to new conditions. There is an acute imbalance in quality of life in different regions. Less populated but more developed countries on Earth with all their might are trying to stop the process of destructive anthropogenic influence on environment in while in densely populated, less developed countries the first place is the problem of survival. Global climate change could lead to an even greater increase in this imbalance.

Scientists are tracking signs of changes taking place on the results of studies of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and ocean waters, meteorological observations, changes in the speed with which glaciers are melting, and the graph of changes in ice areas.

The rate of formation of icebergs is also investigated. Predictions based on the data obtained provide an idea of ​​the consequences of human influence on ecosystems. Evidence from research shows that the threat lies in the fact that the pace of climate change is increasing every year, so the main challenge is the need to introduce environmentally friendly production methods and restore the natural balance.

Historical facts about climate change

Analysis of paleontological data suggests that periods of cold snaps and warming have accompanied the Earth at all times. Cold periods were replaced by warming and vice versa. In the Arctic latitudes in summer, the temperature rose to +13 o C. In contrast, there was a time when there were glaciers in tropical latitudes.

The theory confirms that humanity has witnessed several periods of climate change. There is evidence in historical chronicles that in the 11-13th centuries there was no ice cover on the territory of Greenland, for this reason Norwegian seafarers called it "green land". Then came a period of cooling, and the territory of the island was covered with ice. At the beginning of the 20th century, a period of warming began again, as a result of which the areas of glaciers in the mountains and ice of the Arctic Ocean shrank. In the 1940s, there was a short-term cooling, and since the 1980s, an active increase in temperature began throughout the planet.

In the 21st century, the essence of the problem lies in the fact that the influence of anthropogenic factors has been added to the natural causes of changes in the ambient temperature. The pressure on ecosystems is constantly increasing. Its manifestation is observed in all regions of the planet.

Causes of global warming

Scientists are not ready to name exactly what causes the change in climatic conditions. Many theories and hypotheses have a right to exist. The following hypotheses are most common:

1. The oceans affect the climate by accumulating solar energy. The change in currents has a direct impact on the climatic conditions of the coastal countries. The air masses that are formed under the influence of these currents regulate the temperature and weather conditions of many countries and continents. The circulation of heat from ocean waters has been little studied. The formation of hurricanes, which then come with destructive force to the continents, is a consequence of disturbances in the circulation of heat in the oceans. Ocean water contains carbon dioxide and other harmful impurities, the concentration of which is several times higher than in the atmosphere. Under certain natural processes, these gases can be released into the atmosphere, which causes further climatic changes on the planet.
2. The smallest changes in the activity of the Sun directly affect the climate on Earth. Scientists have identified several cycles of changing solar activity lasting 11, 22 and 80-90 years. It is likely that the increased activity at the present time will decrease, and the air temperature will drop by several degrees.
3. Volcanic activity. According to the studies carried out, during large volcanic eruptions, an initial decrease in air temperature is observed, which is due to the ingress of large volumes of soot and sulfuric acid aerosols into the air. Then there is a significant warming, which is caused by an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide times arising from the eruption of the volcano.
4. Climate change is the result of anthropogenic influence. This hypothesis is the most popular. Comparing the rates of economic and technological growth, population growth and trends in climate change, scientists have come to the conclusion that everything is related to human activities. A side effect of the active pace of industrial development was the emission of harmful gases and air pollution. According to the research results, the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere creates a so-called shell, which leads to disruption of the planet's heat exchange and a gradual increase in the temperature of the air, the surface of the Earth, and the waters of the oceans.

Solutions to the problem of global warming

According to a number of scientists, if a person tackles the problem of global warming in the coming years, the rate of climate change can be reduced. With the unchanged lifestyle of people, it will not be possible to avoid the fate of dinosaurs.

Scientists offer different ways of how to fight and how to stop global warming. The ways to solve the problem of climate change and reduce the burden on the environment are very different: from landscaping areas, breeding new varieties of plants adapted to changing conditions, and ending with the development of new technological processes that will have less impact on nature. In any case, the fight should be aimed not only at solving current problems, but also at preventing negative consequences in the future. Not the least role here is assigned to the reduction of the use of non-renewable energy sources and the transition to the use of renewable ones. Many countries are already switching to geo- and wind energy.

Much attention is paid to the development of regulatory documents, the main task of which is to reduce emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere and preserve biological diversity. This requires significant investments, but as long as people put their own welfare first, it will not be possible to get rid of the problem of climate change and prevent its consequences.

One of the brightest trends in science over the past twenty years is global warming! Some scientists understand by this term an increase in the average temperature of the climate of our planet, allegedly caused by the consequences of human activity, through an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere.

The scientific term global warming is most often used by scientists to denote an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere and air near the surface of the planet, although according to some reports, up to 90% of the warming energy is accumulated in the world's oceans.

Since 1900, the average air temperature on Earth has increased by 0.74 ° C, with 60% of the increase occurring between 1980 and 2010, that is, almost each of the last three decades has been warmer than the previous one. Let's try to figure out if this warming is humanity's fault, or is someone trying to lead us by the nose?

Possible causes of global warming

The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 attributed an increase in concentration due to human activity to the possible causes of global warming.

Three years later, a number of scientists from the world's leading industrial countries agreed with such conclusions, and already in 2013 the fifth IPCC report gave the following assessment:

Human influences have been found to increase atmospheric and ocean temperatures, change the global hydrological cycle, reduce snow and ice, rise in global mean sea levels and some extreme climate events ... "(OD4). It is extremely likely that human influence was the main cause of the warming observed since the middle of the 20th century ...

Thus, the IPCC insists that the reason for the global warming of the Earth's climate throughout the late XX and early XXI centuries lies in the increased level of greenhouse gases due to human activities. According to scientists from the IPCC and according to the values ​​of climate sensitivity to changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases adopted in the models, the value of a possible increase in the average climate temperature over the 21st century will be 1.1-2.9 ° C for the minimum emission scenario, and for maximum emission, the average temperature can rise by 2.4-6.4 ° C. For reference, from 2000 to 2010, greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.2% per year, while in the period 1970-2000, emissions grew by 1.3% per year.

Potential consequences of global warming

In different regions of the planet, the potential consequences of global warming may vary. The main danger may be a change in the amount and nature of precipitation, a rise in sea level with a simultaneous increase in the area of ​​deserts.

Among the risks of global warming, scientists include ocean acidification; an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, including both droughts and heavy rainfall; possible extinction of certain biological species due to changes in temperature. All this can reduce yields and lead to food problems, especially in disadvantaged regions of Africa and Asia. Moreover, due to a possible rise in sea level, some habitats will simply become inaccessible to people.

Estimated consequences of global warming for Russia

The domestic Roshydrometcenter has identified the following possible risks for Russia that may be associated with global warming:

• an increase in the intensity, duration and frequency of extreme precipitation and floods, cases of waterlogging hazardous to agriculture in some regions, and droughts in others;
• degradation of permafrost with damage to buildings and communications in the Arctic;
• increased fire hazard in forest areas;
• an increase in electricity consumption for air conditioning in the summer season for a significant part of the settlements;
• violation of ecological balance, displacement of some biological species by others;

Attempts to prevent a warming of the Earth's climate

The main international agreement on counteracting global warming until 2012 was the famous Kyoto Protocol, which was agreed in the last century, but came into force only at the beginning of 2005. The Kyoto Protocol is an addition to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted on May 9, 1992. According to the Kyoto Protocol, more than 160 countries of the world participate in the program for regulating greenhouse gas emissions, which covers 55% of global emissions.

Separately, it should be noted that countries such as the USA, Canada, Afghanistan and Andorra have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol and, in fact, do not comply with it.

Countries participating in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at a conference in Cancun, Mexico in 2010, endorsed the main goal of the work as limiting global warming to 2 ° C and declared “urgent need to take urgent action” to achieve this goal.

At the same time, the United States, the European Union and China today have an industry that, during its lifetime, will emit more carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere than "the share of these countries with an even per capita distribution of the global emission budget" for 2 ° C. China has already overtaken the United States and the European Union in the atmosphere.

In fact, all efforts to combat global warming are aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, although some scientists offer interesting methods, such as taking carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by fertilizing the waters of the world's oceans with iron.

Misconceptions and myths about global warming

In addition to those who firmly believe in the hypothesis of global warming and that people and their industries are the reasons for the rise in temperatures, there are those who are skeptical about such statements. There is even a term - "climatic skepticism", that is, distrust of certain ideas about global warming of the planet's climate. Climate skeptics often question both the fact of warming and the role of humanity in this process.

For example, “climatic skeptics” do not believe in the complete melting of the Arctic ice by 2030–2050, as the adherents of the anthropogenic version of global warming warn about.

There are even those who argue that the "theory of global warming" is nothing more than a "conspiracy" to control countries and corporations, as well as a convenient mechanism for obtaining funding for research related to climate change.

The so-called "Climategate" scandal has added fuel to the fire, a scandal associated with the leakage of email archive, data files and their processing programs from the climatology department of the University of East Anglia in Norwich. In 2009, unidentified individuals circulated an archive file over the Internet that contained information stolen from the Climatology Department of the University of East Anglia, which is one of the three main providers of climate data to the UN IPCC.

• climatologists supporters of the AGP theory hide information about the climate from opponents of the theory;
• distort observations to confirm global warming;
• prevent the publication of scientific papers that disagree with their views;
• delete files and correspondence, just not to disclose them in accordance with freedom of information laws.

Following the link, you can get acquainted with the data from the archive, according to the information of which several independent investigations were carried out, in which the activities of the scientists who participated in this electronic correspondence were studied. All these investigations justified the scientists, but the publication definitely gave food for thought to a rich one!

The fact that Greenpeace, WWF and the Center for International Environmental Law insist that top managers of fossil fuel corporations should be held accountable for opposing policy measures aimed at combating climate warming is already alarming, because the same the ill-fated Greenpeace just "does not work", where there is no smell of big money, they are often silent.

Figures and facts about climate change

The main point cited by climatologists who advocate the theory of anthropogenic global warming is the process of melting of the Arctic and Antarctic glaciers. According to open statistics, over the past fifty years, the temperature in the southwestern part of Antarctica has increased by 2.5 ° C. For example, in 2002, an iceberg with an area of ​​over 2500 km² and a thickness of up to 200 meters broke off from the Larsen Ice Shelf located in Antarctica, although this glacier remained stable for ten thousand years. The melting of the Antarctic ice shelf led to the release of an impressive number of icebergs (more than a thousand icebergs) into the Weddell Sea. And although the area of ​​Antarctic glaciation is growing, the mass of its ice is decreasing.

Scientists also noted the fact that the degradation of permafrost has accelerated since the early 1970s; according to statistics, the temperature of permafrost soils in Western Siberia increased by 1 ° C, and in central Yakutia by 1.5 ° C. On the neighboring continent in northern Alaska, the temperature of the upper frozen layer has increased by 3 ° C since the mid-1980s.

An indicative fact of global warming can be considered the discovery by the researcher Dennis Schmitt in 2005 that the peninsula in Greenland, which back in 2002 was connected to Liverpool's Land by ice, became an island. That is, for many years a thick layer of ice did not allow them to discover that there was no land under it, and to understand that the researchers were facing an island surrounded by water, and not a peninsula. As a result, the newly minted was named literally "Warming Island".

P.S. Just the other day, there was an excellent article about the myths of global warming in the English The Telegraph:

Climatologists such as Professor Peter Wadhams (University of Cambridge) and Professor Wieslaw Maslowski (US Navy Graduate School in Monterey, California) have regularly predicted a near complete melt of Arctic ice by 2016 in recent years. These disappointing predictions were often published by the world's leading media, the BBC for example, and many other media outlets.

British climatologist Peter Wadhams even published a book A Farewell To Ice, intimidating by the complete loss of the Arctic ice cover ... But the latest satellite images of the Arctic showed that in 2016 there was more ice at the North Pole than in 2012 year.

After analyzing the data obtained from satellites, it became known that at the beginning of autumn 2016, the ice cover area of ​​the Arctic was 1.09 million square kilometers, which is 21% more than in 2012, when the ice area was at its minimum.

Experts from the American center NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center) said that Wadhams and Maslowski were wrong in their predictions, and believe that it is not worth dramatizing and sowing unnecessary panic, let alone providing inaccurate data on the extent of global warming.

And for dessert, we left the opinion of the shocking Anatoly Wasserman about global cataclysms such as the greenhouse effect and global warming.