Construction work has begun. Construction industry in Russia: state and prospects. Residential complex "Union Park"

Based on the opinions of the heads of construction companies, identified during four quarterly surveys conducted in 2015, it can be stated that the industry was in a state of sluggish recession throughout the year. At the same time, it should be noted that already in 2010, during the period of compensatory post-crisis economic growth, builders managed not only to get out of the previous year's recession (86.8%), but also to show a fairly high growth rate - 105.0%. Unfortunately, there is no hope for such positive changes in 2016 yet. Unless, of course, tectonic positive shifts in world prices for hydrocarbon raw materials take place in the near future. The economy, at its best, in 2016 will show purely statistical growth within 0.5% due to a low comparison base with 2015. And then, this scenario is possible only if world oil prices reach $ 52-55 per barrel next year, and the likelihood of this reversal is highly doubtful. Banking problems are likely to persist. Therefore, it is almost impossible to expect a fundamental improvement in lending to the construction sector, as well as a sharp decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the mortgage lending rate. The real disposable money income of the population, in contrast to 2009, is currently falling for 12 months in a row with a trend towards continued negative dynamics in 2016 as well. Although in 2016 the electoral cycle for elections will begin in The State Duma and the President of Russia, which will certainly motivate the state to increase social budget spending. However, the existing economic and geopolitical uncertainty and problems with the federal budget itself are unlikely to make it possible to intensify this process too much.

Today's financial and economic situation, in which the species found itself economic activity- construction - although it is extremely difficult, but in principle it is absolutely natural. And it is connected primarily not with the inability of the "director corps" in construction to apply progressive and effective management schemes and not with the "laziness" of construction workers of various specialties, but with a sharp decline in demand for contracting services from the main investors construction activities- the state, the corporate sector and the population. Accordingly, the expansion of construction can be expected not earlier than stabilization. economic processes from the main investors.

Today, practically during the absence of significant mega-projects (and maybe this is good for the economy), there is no driver that would allow to dramatically increase the volume of construction and installation work in the industry. Existing large facilities include New Moscow and the infrastructure for the 2018 FIFA World Cup. However, in these areas there is already a serious groundwork. Among the large construction projects close in the future are the Far East and the Kerch Bridge, but even these volumes will not be enough to bring the industry into the zone of positive growth rates. Apparently, it is necessary to look for new ones, including legislative mechanisms for the possible expansion of construction activities. One of such maneuvers could be a really sharp intensification of the long-discussed construction of infrastructure facilities using the mechanism of public-private partnership (PPP).

Secondly, it is necessary to more purposefully regulate construction activities, especially where possible positive changes... For example, in the regulation of the minimum amount of capital for developers who raise funds from equity holders; creation of a unified electronic register for developers; the creation of special accounts for the funds of equity holders, etc. Unfortunately, the construction industry has many internal problems that need to be dealt with at the managerial and legislative level. The presence of administrative barriers, set by officials of various levels, "standing on the feed" from construction activities, is one of the key factors in the list of factors limiting construction activities. In particular, in the rating of countries favorable for doing business, compiled annually by the World Bank (Doing Business - 2016), Russia ranks 51st among 189 countries. Among the 10 areas in which the overall country rating is assessed, there is one, purely construction, position - obtaining construction permits. It was this indicator that did not allow Russia to break into the first fifty of the rating. We ranked 119th in the world by obtaining a building permit. So our legislators in general, and the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation in particular, have a wide field of activity to restore order in the field of creating favorable conditions for doing business and not only in obtaining a building permit.

(Quoted from the HSE press release)

The idea of ​​the project. For more than 15 years, conducting daily monitoring and studying in detail the Russian economy and its individual segments, INFOLine specialists came up with the idea of ​​creating a unique product - a comprehensive line of research on the main industries of the Russian Federation.

It includes a detailed analysis of key industry indicators, major events, government regulation, largest investment projects and development forecast:

• “Construction industry in Russia. Results of 2016. Development Prospects until 2019 ";
• “Transport industry in Russia. Results of 2016. Development Prospects until 2019 ";
• “Agro-industrial complex of Russia. Results of 2016. Development prospects in 2017 ";
• “Production of food and beverages in Russia. Results of 2016. Development prospects in 2017 ";
• “Fuel and energy complex of Russia. Results of 2016. Development Prospects until 2019 ";
• “Non-Food Retail and Consumer Market in Russia. Results of 2016. Development Prospects until 2019 ";
• “Food retail and consumer market in Russia. Results of 2016. Development Prospects until 2019 ".

Research is structured according to general structure, which allows not only obtaining detailed data within the same industry, but also analyzing and comparing indicators of the development of industries with each other.
For the first time!“Macroeconomics and the State of Manufacturing Industries. Results of 2016. Development Prospects until 2019 ”is a product line that summarizes all industry trends and macroeconomic indicators.

ATTENTION! The studies were published in an innovative format: in the form of a convenient electronic presentation, this is the optimal format, which, in addition to a text message, includes a large amount of demonstration material (graphs, diagrams), hyperlinks to the most important documents and company websites.

Relevance of the research “Construction industry in Russia. Results of 2016. Development Prospects until 2019 ". The construction industry of the Russian economy is experiencing undulating development. By the 90s of the XX century, the country gained the highest momentum in construction: in 1987, 72.8 million sq. m of residential real estate, and after 13 years the volume of housing commissioned has more than halved - to 30.3 million square meters. m. Then the industry came out of the crisis, increased the pace thanks to new technologies: in 2014, 84, 2 million square meters were put into operation. m of residential space, and in 2015 - 85.3 million sq. m, which became the highest indicator in the history of the country's construction. However, in 2016 there was a decrease in indicators: according to preliminary estimates, a decrease in the volume of housing commissioned by about 6% is expected at the end of the year. In order to understand why the industry is re-experiencing a recession and how deep it will be, we conducted a comprehensive study of the industry, affecting all its segments. With the help of the proposed product, you will be able to determine the position of your own company in relation to the dynamics of the industry and outline possible ways of business development.

Research objectives:

• analysis of the state of the industry as a whole and its parts by types of facilities under construction separately (housing, industrial, infrastructure, commercial construction);
• drawing up a rating of developer companies by the volume of housing commissioning, a rating of retail real estate developers;
• identification and description of the largest ongoing projects;
• an overview of the dynamics of construction and the vector of development of the industry by describing the most important events;
• representation of government regulation;
• industry analysis building materials(piece wall, non-metallic materials, cement and others).

A high synergistic effect is achieved when using the research “Construction industry in Russia. Results of 2016. Development Prospects until 2019 ”with other INFOLine products for the construction industry:

• “Macroeconomics and the State of Manufacturing Industries. Results of the year"
• Regular news reviews of the building materials market within the framework of the Thematic News service:
• "The market of building and finishing materials, DIY retail chains and household goods in the Russian Federation"
• "Russian cement market"
• "Market of ceramics and porcelain stoneware in the Russian Federation"
• “160 largest projects for the construction of sports facilities in the Russian Federation. Projects 2016 - 2019 "
• “220 largest projects for the construction of agricultural complexes in the Russian Federation. Projects 2016 - 2019 "
• "300 largest investment projects in the construction of the Russian Federation in 2016"
• “320 projects of complex development in Russia. Projects 2016 - 2020 "
• “200 largest projects for the construction of logistics facilities in the Russian Federation (warehouses, ports, airports). Projects 2016 - 2020 "
• “160 largest projects for the construction of hotel complexes. Projects 2015 - 2019 "
• "200 projects under construction and planned for construction shopping centers RF. Projects 2017 - 2020 "
• "Investment projects in industrial construction of the Russian Federation"
• "Investment projects in civil engineering RF "
• "Investment projects in transport infrastructure RF "

Directions for using the research results: marketing and strategic planning. For integrated analysis the construction and building materials industries, and for benchmarking and competitive analysis of companies.

Research time frame: dynamics of various indicators of the industry since 2011, general national and regional statistics of 2016 (volume of commissioning of residential and non-residential real estate, infrastructure facilities, basic indicators of the construction industry, production and sales of construction materials), development prospects in 2017 (macroeconomic indicators of Russia , implementation of individual investment projects).

Terms of research: I quarter of 2017.

Research benefits. In the study, in addition to a detailed analysis of the state of the industry, you will find:

• several original ratings compiled by INFOLine analysts:
• INFOLine BUILDING RUSSIA TOP-10 rating (which includes such companies as GK PIK, LSR Group);
• INFOLine DEVELOPER RUSSIA TOP-10 rating (among the participants there are such large owners as Adamant, IKEA, RosEuroDevelopment);
• description of the largest ongoing projects in residential construction (among them the start of construction of LSR Group complexes);
• description of the largest ongoing projects in infrastructure construction (construction of the Crimean bridge, reconstruction of the R-22 "Caspian" road and others);
• information on the dynamics of production and sales of building materials by year, including you will find out the reasons for the sharp unexpected growth in the production of nonmetallic materials in 2016.
  Objectives and structure of the study by sections:

  Part I. Key indicators of the construction industry: volume analysis construction works, commissioning of residential and non-residential buildings, indicators of mortgage lending, lending to construction companies, the dynamics of their business activity, as well as a description of the volume of production of building materials.

  At the same time, due to the strong expansion of supply, not only has significant stalled demand been achieved, but there are already numerous vacancies. Elimination of problems occurs especially in apartments in the upper price segment. High rents and costs are difficult to achieve in the market.

  One and two-family home construction continues to enjoy low mortgage rates and a quiet price climate. The institute's construction department expects the incentive effect of home ownership to be even greater than in the West, as threshold households are more represented in new land, and the land tenure subsidy in the East is complemented by government guarantees.

  Part II. Key industry events: coverage of legislative changes in the construction industry, events in the field of state support for the industry, tracking large mergers and acquisitions in the construction and production of building materials, important resignations and appointments.

  Part III. The main indicators of the segments of the construction industry: a detailed description of the state of all areas of the industry (housing, industrial, infrastructure, commercial construction), the development of current projects of organizations, specific investment plans of companies in terms of construction, the largest construction processes and key events in the segments are given. The part also reflects the state of the building materials market and the analysis of investment activity in this market (modernization of production, construction of new facilities).

  This argument supports the differentiated development of building permits. Mark still played a big role. At the same time, the ceiling for subsidized subsidized loans was increased from 500 to 800 marks per square meter. Finally, housing reconstruction benefits from federal financial support to promote urban development, as well as funds for social housing that can be used in the new federal states - as opposed to old ones - for existing measures. After the end of transition periods in budgetary support for new housing construction, a downward trend in the housing sector is likely.

  Work experience and references: INFOLine has been implementing custom research for clients and has been publishing proactive research on the construction market since 2010. Our regular clients are more than 100 construction and investment companies, as well as companies participating in the building materials market, including the largest developers and construction companies (IKEA Mos, Adamant Holding, Glavstroy Corporation and LSR Group), leading manufacturers of building materials (KNAUF, Eurocement, HOLCIM Group, LAFARGE, Pobeda LSR, Wienerberger Brick, Severstal-Steel Solutions, RUUKKI Rus, PSK Pulkovo, Samara Plant Electroshield), financial companies (Sberbank, Alfa-Bank, VTB).

  Changes for the better

  To significantly strengthen the construction of new lands. Construction demand will return to “normal levels” in the medium term. The decline in new housing construction will not be offset by the upward trend in housing and the expected increase in inventories.

  By the end of the year, there was an accelerated decline. Building permits are showing a differentiated but overall strong decline. Floor construction fell by more than 20 percent, while single-family and semi-detached houses even recorded a slight increase.

  Questionnaire information needs and a complete list of ready-made Studies and other information products of INFOLine you can request HERE. By sending us a completed application form, you can IS FREE receive short version

  Sources of information:

• data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Federal Agency for Construction and Housing and Communal Services, the Agency for Mortgage housing lending, The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation, the UN foreign trade database, the portal of the Presidential Administration, data from the Fund for Assistance to the Reform of the Housing and Utilities Sector;
• INFOLine database on the topics "Investment projects in industrial construction in the Russian Federation", "Investment projects in civil construction in the Russian Federation", "Investment projects in the transport infrastructure of the Russian Federation";
• other INFOLine products: “2000 shopping centers in 30 largest cities Russia "," Market of metal structures in the Russian Federation "," Cement industry of the Russian Federation "," Production and consumption of crushed stone in the Russian Federation "," Production and market of silicate and ceramic bricks "," Construction industry in Russia ";
• data from the largest construction companies (site materials, press releases);
• materials from more than 5,000 Russian media (federal and regional press, news agencies, electronic media), as well as industry press.